Is It Too Late to Launch an App in 2027? Current Data

Key takeaways

We recorded the video in November 2020. Its examples and revenue figures are from 2019 and 2020 and are not repeated as current here.
Consumers spent $167 billion in apps in 2025, up 10.6%, while downloads grew only 0.8% to nearly 150 billion (Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026).
Non-game apps passed games in in-app revenue for the first time in 2025, growing 21% (Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026).
Subscription app launches rose from about 2,000 a month in January 2022 to more than 14,700 in January 2026 (RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026).
Apps launched before 2020 earn 69% of subscription revenue. Apps launched in 2025 or later earn 3% (RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026).
Only 17.3% of new subscription apps reach $1K a month within two years, and 4.6% reach $10K (RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026).

What the video covers

0:00 Is it too late to launch an app?. The question and why the store feels crowded.
1:49 A mindset issue, not a market issue. Every market is crowded, and people still start.
2:21 Young founders and app exits. Examples from the 2020 video.
3:21 Simple ideas that made money. Novelty apps and a viral game.
4:10 Recent hits and big-company revenue. 2019 and 2020 figures for well-known apps.
6:09 Founders who were not technical. Why you do not need to code to launch.
7:15 Excuses or results: make a plan. The case for a plan, a strategy and a mentor.

Is it too late to launch an app in 2027?

No, but the way to win has changed. The market is larger than in 2020. Sensor Tower reports that consumers spent $167 billion on in-app purchases in 2025, up 10.6%, and Apple says its App Store ecosystem facilitated $1.3 trillion in developer billings and sales in 2024. What has changed is the share a new app can reach. Downloads grew only 0.8% in 2025, while RevenueCat counts more than 14,700 new subscription apps launching each month, against about 2,000 in early 2022. Older apps keep most of the revenue: those launched before 2020 earn 69% of it. So a new app is not shut out, but it cannot rely on being in the store. It needs a specific audience, a clear reason to pay and a way to reach people that does not depend on organic luck. If you have those, the answer is launch.

Measure	Latest figure	Source
Global in-app purchase revenue, 2025	$167 billion, up 10.6%	Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026
Global downloads, 2025	Nearly 150 billion, up 0.8%	Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026
App Store ecosystem billings and sales, 2024	$1.3 trillion	Apple's June 2025 newsroom release
New subscription app launches per month	About 2,000 (Jan 2022) to 14,700+ (Jan 2026)	RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026
Share of subscription revenue from apps launched before 2020	69%	RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026

Apple's figure includes physical goods and services sold through apps, and Apple says developers paid no commission on more than 90% of it, so it describes the size of the ecosystem, not what a new app should expect to earn.

How crowded are the app stores now?

Very crowded, and more crowded every month. 42matters counted 2,754,344 apps on the Apple App Store and 2,657,589 on Google Play on 26 October 2026. Counts differ between trackers, so treat these as the order of magnitude, not an exact census. The number matters less than the speed: RevenueCat reports subscription app launches at more than seven times their early-2022 rate, with about 77% of them on iOS. Crowding means that discovery through store search alone is harder for a generic app. It does not mean there is no room. Most of those listings are not competing for your customer, and many are inactive. The competition that counts is the handful of apps that solve the same problem for the same person, and a narrow niche often has fewer serious rivals than a broad category.

The counts come from 42matters, and the launch rates from RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026. Our advice is to measure your real competition by searching ten phrases your customer would type, and listing the apps that appear more than twice. That list is your market. If it has fewer than 20 names, the space is not saturated. If it has 200, you need a sharper angle. Narrow by audience first, for example a profession, a life stage or a use case, and by feature second.

Low barriers help and hurt. The Apple Developer Program page lists a $99 annual fee, and Google Play Console Help lists a one-time $25 registration fee. Anyone can publish, so you will face more competitors, but you also do not need a large budget to enter.

How much do new apps actually earn?

Most new apps earn little in their first two years, and a few earn a lot. RevenueCat's data on subscription apps shows a median of about $72 in monthly revenue a year after launch, with the top quarter above $429 and the top 10% above $2,574. Across all categories, 17.3% of new apps reach $1,000 in monthly revenue within two years, and 4.6% reach $10,000. Median time to reach $1,000 in monthly revenue is 58 days. Paywall design matters: a hard paywall converts 10.7% of downloads to paid by day 35, against 2.1% for freemium. These figures describe subscription apps only, and RevenueCat's sample favors apps that use its software. Apps that earn from ads, one-time purchases or services need different benchmarks. Use these as a reality check for planning, not as a promise.

Category	Reach $1K a month within 2 years	Reach $10K a month within 2 years
All categories	17.3%	4.6%
Photo and Video	21.4%	7.3%
Gaming	20.0%	8.9%
Business	14.7%	1.6%

Source: RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026. The range is wide enough that your category matters as much as your effort. It also shows what separates the top quarter from the median: a clear paying audience, a price that matches the value and a paywall that asks at the right moment.

Which kinds of apps are still winning?

Apps that solve a paid problem for a defined audience, and apps built on AI. Sensor Tower reports that non-game apps passed games in in-app revenue for the first time in 2025, up 21%, while games grew 1.3%. Generative AI apps reached 3.8 billion downloads, roughly double the previous year, and more than $5 billion in in-app revenue, nearly triple. RevenueCat adds a caution: AI apps earn 41% more revenue per payer, but their users churn 30% faster. So the opportunity is real, and retention is the harder half. Outside AI, the pattern is the same as it was in 2020: the apps that last are those that make a task faster, cheaper or more enjoyable for a specific group, and that are easy to explain in one sentence. A new idea without a defined buyer is the weak position. A narrow tool with a clear buyer is the strong one.

The figures come from Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 and RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026. Before you copy a trend, check whether the people who buy it are your people. A fashionable category with a crowded top end is a harder place to start than a quiet corner with a clear buyer. Look at the reviews of the leading apps in your category for complaints about price, speed or support. Those complaints show where a new entrant can compete.

One more check: if the app is free with no plan to earn, you have a hobby, not a business. Decide how it earns before you build the first screen.

What did the 2020 video get right, and what has changed?

The video's main point still holds: the size of the market is a poor reason to give up, and plenty of people who looked at a crowded store started anyway. It also made a fair argument that you do not need to be technical to launch an app. What has changed is the arithmetic. In 2020 we pointed to apps with large revenue and treated them as proof that the door was open. Those were big platforms, not typical first launches, and the data now shows how uneven the outcomes are. We are not repeating the video's revenue and valuation figures here, because they come from 2019 and 2020 and we have not re-verified them. The honest version today is this: starting is cheap, standing out is the hard part, and the founders who keep going are those who plan how users will find the app and pay for it before they build. A good attitude helps. A plan decides the outcome.

Stories of fast fortunes also suffer from survivorship bias. We hear about the apps that made money, not the thousands that did not. When you read a success story, ask who it leaves out and what the founder had that you do not, such as an audience, a network or a prior business.

Since we recorded the video, Apple has also added privacy controls that change how iOS ads are measured, and AI has changed which categories get attention. Both make an early plan for acquisition and measurement more important than it was in 2020. Founders who treat the store as the whole marketing plan are the ones most surprised by the results.

A fair summary of the gap between 2020 and now: the cost of building an app has fallen, the cost of being found has not. Budget your time and money with that in mind, and spend the larger share on reaching and keeping users.

How should you launch an app now?

Start with the buyer, not the build. Name one group of people and one problem they already pay to solve. Then test demand before you write code: a landing page, a short interview round with ten people from that group, and a waitlist. Build the smallest version that delivers one clear outcome, and add the way it earns in the first release, not after. Run a beta so real users find the problems first, then plan the launch as a sequence: pre-launch list, store page, launch week, and the 30 days after. Track activation and day-7 retention from the first user, because those numbers decide whether paid acquisition will pay back. Use a mentor or an agency for the parts you cannot do, but own the audience yourself. If you cannot name a way to reach your first 1,000 users, solve that before you spend on the build.

Our pre-launch marketing plan covers the weeks before release, and our launch checklist covers the day itself. For what you should expect to spend, see how much it costs to build an app. If you also need money to start, our funding options guide compares savings, grants, loans and investors.

Set a decision rule before you begin. For example: if fewer than 5% of landing page visitors join the waitlist after 500 visits, change the promise before you build. A rule agreed in advance stops hope from deciding for you.

What we see across 300+ apps

We have shipped 300+ apps since 2015, and they have passed 52M+ installs. The founders who ask whether it is too late are usually asking a different question: how will anyone find this? That question has an answer, and it is a plan.

The projects that go well share three traits. The founder can describe the user in one sentence. The app has a reason for someone to pay, built in from the first version. And acquisition is planned from the start, with at least two channels tested before the budget grows. Projects that struggle tend to have a good product and no route to users, or the reverse. In both cases the fix is the same: go back to the buyer, and test the weak side before spending more on the strong one.

The 2020 video told people to stop making excuses, and we still agree. We would add one line: replace the excuse with a test. Run a small one this month, such as a landing page or ten user interviews, and let the result decide. Our MVP guide and app development service are built for that first step.

Frequently asked questions

Is it too late to start an app business?

No. Consumer spending in apps grew 10.6% in 2025 to $167 billion, and non-game apps passed games for the first time. But competition is higher than in 2020, so start with a specific audience and a clear way to earn.

How many apps are on the App Store and Google Play?

42matters counted 2,754,344 apps on the Apple App Store and 2,657,589 on Google Play on 26 October 2026. Counts vary by tracker, so use them as an order of magnitude. Your real competitors are the few apps that solve your exact problem.

How much money does a new app make?

It varies widely. For new subscription apps, RevenueCat reports a median of about $72 a month a year after launch. 17.3% reach $1,000 a month within two years, and 4.6% reach $10,000. Your category, price and paywall move these numbers a lot.

Do I need to know how to code to launch an app?

No. Many founders hire developers or an agency and focus on the audience, product and marketing. You do need to understand what you are buying, own your developer accounts and your code, and measure results from the first release onward.

Are AI apps a good idea to launch now?

The demand is real: generative AI apps reached 3.8 billion downloads in 2025. But RevenueCat finds AI app users churn 30% faster, so retention and a clear use case matter more. Pick a narrow problem with a clear buyer, not a general chatbot.

How long does it take a new app to reach $1,000 a month?

RevenueCat reports a median of 58 days to $1,000 in monthly revenue across categories, with gaming at 32 days and business at 113. Many apps never reach that level, so plan your runway for longer than the median suggests, and keep costs low until revenue shows up.

Not sure if your idea is worth building?

Tell us the idea, the buyer and your budget. We will give you a straight view on what to test first.

Book a strategy call

Sources

State of Mobile 2026, Sensor Tower, January 2026. https://sensortower.com/blog/state-of-mobile-2026
State of Subscription Apps 2026, RevenueCat, 2026. https://www.revenuecat.com/state-of-subscription-apps
Global App Store helps developers reach new heights, Apple Newsroom, June 2025. https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/06/global-app-store-helps-developers-reach-new-heights/
Store stats for mobile apps, 42matters, accessed 26 October 2026. https://data.42matters.com/stats
What's included in the Apple Developer Program, Apple, 2026. https://developer.apple.com/programs/whats-included/
Register for a Google Play Console developer account, Play Console Help, Google, 2026. https://support.google.com/googleplay/android-developer/answer/6112435